Tuesday, 18 January 2011

Sex On Mars : Pregnancy, Fetal Development and Sex in Outer Space

1. SEX IN SPACE

Performance of the sex act during a journey to Mars, may require potentially complex sexual gymnastics. On the other hand, any difficulties associated with sexual intercourse in space may turn out to be an easily solved problem of docking and entry as human are notorious for inventing ways of having sex despite all manner of logistical impediments (Joseph 2000a). However, what impact will sexual activity have on team dynamics and morale? And what if an astronaut became pregnant during the journey? Would the fetus be viable? How would this impact the crew?
NASA has no policy regarding sex in space and its repercussions (Office of Audits, 2010), other than to request, in 2008, that astronauts voluntarily abide by an "Astronaut Code of Professional Responsibility" and maintain "a constant commitment to honourable behaviour." As summed up by the NASA Astronaut Health Care System Review Committee (NASA 2007), "the absence of a code of conduct and its enforcement, and the lack of management action to limit inappropriate activity increases the likelihood of aberrant behaviour occurring and decreases the likelihood of such behaviour being reported."
According to NASA's review committee (NASA 2007), and a panel of experts assembled by the National Academy of Science (Longnecker and Molins 2006), this is a serious oversight: if male and female astronauts share a cramped space ship for years, surrounded by stars blazing in the blackness of night, thoughts are bound to turn to sex and romance. Thus, "ignoring the potential consequences of human sexuality is not appropriate when considering extended-duration missions" (Longnecker and Molins 2006), and this includes a human mission to Mars.

2. BIOLOGICAL DESTINY: SEX AND PREGNANCY

Biologically, females serve one purpose: to get pregnant (Joseph 2000a, 2001a,b, 2002). However, the human female is also the only female regardless of species, who is sexually receptive at all times and who has evolved secondary sexual characteristics, e.g. the enlarged breasts and derriere, which signal to males and females alike, her sexual availability (Joseph 2000a,b). Almost all non-human primate species that exhibit genital and breast swelling live in multi-male groups and they only develop these secondary sexual characteristic when sexually receptive (Clutton-Brock and Harvey, 1976; Fedigan, 1992; Wallis, 1992). These swellings serve to attract males and to arouse male sexual interest when the female is in estrus (Carpenter, 1942; Chevalier-Skolnikoff, 1974; Fedigan, 1992; Ford & Beach, 1951; Zuckerman, 1932) and the same can be said of the female human derriere and breasts which have evolved and increased in size over the course of human evolution so as to signal continual sexual availability (Joseph 1985, 2000a,b). Moreover, the human female has evolved the cognitive and intellectual capacity to employ cosmetics, perfumes, colorful clothing, push up bras, high heels, and so on, which draw attention to her breasts and derriere, and which emphasize and exaggerate her sexual availability by mimicking the signs of estrus common in other social primates (Joseph 2000a,b). And just as female primates and other female mammals seek sex with high status males whom they most prefer (Allen & Lemmon, 1981; Carpenter, 1942; Chevalier-Skolnikoff, 1974; Fedigan, 1992; Ford & Beach, 1951; Zuckerman, 1932), the same can be said of the human female (Joseph 2000a,b).

3. ASTRONAUTS HAVE SEX: THE CASE OF LISA NOWAK AND WILLIAM OEFELIEN


The frequency of sex between male and female astronauts is unknown, due in part to NASA's unofficial "mind your own business" policy (Mullane 2007) and its failure to mandate an enforceable code of responsibility which "decreases the likelihood of such behaviour being reported" (NASA 2007; Office of Audits, 2010). Inadvertently, NASA encourages sexual behavior by not restricting it, or training for it; and this could be disastrous for a human mission to Mars.
Michael Collins, whose second spaceflight was as commander and pilot for Apollo 11, is one of only 24 humans to have flown to the Moon. In his book Mission to Mars (Collins, 1990), he points out that the crew of a future mission to Mars will likely be multinational and consist of both males and females from different professional backgrounds. He believed that the presence of women on a long duration mission to Mars, would create tremendous sexual tensions and a "singles bar atmosphere...a charged mixture of sexually unattached competitors, would be a disaster."
Consider the well publicized case of female astronaut Navy Captain Lisa Nowak, and Shuttle pilot Cmdr. William Oefelein who flew together on the space shuttle and engaged in an adulterous relationship which allegedly almost led to the kidnapping and murder of Nowak's rival, Air Force Captain Colleen Shipman.
Nowak, a married mother of three, was a highly regarded professional who had logged more than 1,500 hours in different aircraft, had received a BS in aerospace engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy in 1985; an MS degree in aeronautical engineering and a degree of aeronautical and astronautical engineer from the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, and who was qualified as Mission Commander and an Electronic Warfare lead in her flight squadron (NASA 2006).
She subsequently underwent astronaut training, was qualified as a mission specialist, worked at Mission Control as prime communicator with on-orbit crews, subsequently flew on the Space Shuttle and performed complicated manuevers on a 13-day mission on the International Space Station (ISS) in 2006 (NASA 2006). The Shuttle pilot was Cmdr. William Oefelein (the father of two children and a former "Top Gun" Navy pilot) with whom she was having an adulterous sexual affair.
According to Orlando Police Department investigators (2007a,b), unknown to Nowak, Oefelein was also having sex with Air Force Captain Colleen Shipman who he had met while training for the Shuttle Mission which would carry him and Nowak to the ISS. Subsequently, when Nowak logged onto Oefelein's computer at his home one evening, and discovered emails to and from Oefelein and Shipman which made explicit their sexual activities, Nowak allegedly decided to kidnap and kill her rival. Nowak drove 900-miles from Houston to Orlando, dressed in a trench coat and a wig to disguise her identity, and then attacked Shipman in the parking lot of the Orlando International Airport (Doukopil 2007; Hauser 2007, Kluger, 2007). Detectives found 30 unused diapers in her car, and a rope and a knife which she'd packed for her confrontation with Shipman.
The exact nature of Oefelein's feelings toward Nowak when he turned his attentions to Shipman is unknown. According to Orlando Police Department investigators (2007b), Nowak thought the affair was ongoing. According to Shipman, Oefelein once called Shipman by Nowak's first name when they were in bed (Orlando Police Department investigators 2007b). What we know for a fact is that Nowak and Shipman were willingly having sex with Oefelein while Nowak and Oefelein worked together as astronauts and these affairs were ongoing before and after Oefelein and Nowak flew on a 13 day mission together. We should ask: what would have happened if commander Oefelein, captain Nowak, and captain Shipman, were flying together on a 9 month mission to Mars where they would be together for over 2 years?
One answer comes from studies of female primates. Primate females will compete for access to preferred males, and will fight and threaten one another for the privilege of having sex with these males (Fedigan, 1992). However, primate males also try to monopolize females, and high status males tend to attack and drive off low status males (Goodall, 1971, 1986; Nishida, 1990; Sade, 1967). Male primates will also rape high status estrus female primates who resist.

4. ROMANCE AND SIMULATED MISSIONS TO MARS

If a crew of 3 males and 3 females were sent on a journey to Mars, it can be predicted that males would experience sexual interest in the female astronauts, and female astronauts may or may not always reciprocate depending on their hormonal status, and the status and attractiveness of the males vying for their attention. Male astronauts may not always take "no" for an answer.
Consider for example, the case of 32-year-old Dr. Judith Lapierre, a Ph.D. health sciences specialist, sponsored by the Canadian Space Agency, who participated in a 110-day isolation experiment designed to simulate a long duration space mission (Oberg 2000; Warren, 2000). According to Dr. Lapierre, two of her Russian international crew mates became embroiled in a 10 minute violent blood splattering fight, immediately after which she was physically accosted and manhandled by the team commander, a Russian, who began forcibly kissing her and sticking his tongue in her mouth (Oberg, 2000; Warren, 2000).
Dr. Lapierre forcefully protested immediately before, during, and after the assault, and was so frightened of additional sexual attacks that locks were placed on the doors to the passageway linking her test module with the Russian module. She and her crew mates also hid all the knives as they feared more violent outbursts and physical assaults. The experiment, called Sphinx-99, was designed to observe group dynamics under both routine and emergency conditions.
In the case of Dr. Lapierre, it was the commander in charge of the mission who assaulted her and she appealed to outside supervisory personnel for help. On a human mission to Mars, there will be no doors which can lock out sexual predators, and no one from Mission Control who can come to a female astronaut's rescue.
If women accompany men on a human Mission to Mars, are they at risk for rape? Or is the greater risk, falling in love and then pregnancy?
Dr. Judith Lapierre, was the only woman in a crew of eight and who were confined to a replica of the Mir space station. In another simulation, which included more females, romantic relations developed between willing partners. According to Pletser (2010), during the EuroGeoMars project designed to simulate a mission to Mars, in the Utah desert, two crew members engaged in a romantic relationship which involved open displays of affection and physical intimacy such as holding hands, spending exclusive time together in the evenings and while performing chores and various duties. Although privacy prevailed behind closed doors, these romantic activities were not welcome by other team members, and it was felt this behavior was detrimental to the unity of the group and team social activities.
According to an analysis of NASA's (2005) "Bioastronautics Roadmap: a risk reduction strategy for human exploration of space" (Longnecker and Molins 2006), not only are male and female astronauts on extended missions or a mission to Mars likely to have sex, but failing to plan for and ignoring the likelihood of sexual activity could have profound and even life threatening consequences: "Areas of concern for the 30-month Mars mission include the potential psychological and physiological consequences of sexual activity, consequences that could endanger life, crew cohesion, performance, and mission success."
What are some possible consequences? Rape, murder, the monopolization of female astronauts by one or two high ranking males?

5. SEX IN THE ANTARCTIC

The polar environment has been viewed by numerous scientists, and NASA, as an excellent analog for long-duration space missions. The findings are unequivocal: men and women have sex and form temporary romantic and sexual relationships (Leon 2005; Palinkas 2002; Rosnet et al., 2004; Stuster 1996): "One cannot send unmarried men and women" to the Arctic "and not expect them to form bonds" (Leon 2005); bonds which often lead to pregnancies (Ayton 2006; Bowden 1999).
For example, on Australian stations in the Antarctic seven pregnancies were recorded between 1989 and 2006 (Ayton 2006), although "no one wants to become pregnant down there, no one wishes a baby to be born down there" (Bowden 1999). The general belief is that pregnancy in the Antarctic poses increased risk to the mother, to her unborn child, to the team, and to the success of the expedition program (Ayton 2006). Nevertheless, women team members, regardless of nationality, become pregnant.
The Antarctic has long been viewed as an excellent analog for long-duration space missions and the same preference for high ranking males has been observed (Stuster 1996). Female crew members seek sexual intimacies with senior, high status personnel to the exclusion of the other men.
In fact, just having women as members of the team in the Antarctic can cause significant sexual tension and stress for both men and women (Palinkas 2002; Rosnet et al., 2004; Stuster 1996). Some men harass females for sex, women will behave seductively, sexual frustrations increase, and romantic rivalries develop (Rosnet et al., 2004; Palinkas 2002; Stuster 1996). Moreover, women in these settings are perceived by men and women alike as having tremendous sexual power over men, and thus have greater control over men, as it is the female's choice as to which of the men will receive their sexual favors (Palinkas 2002). Although this "choosiness" can certainly enhance the morale of the male she chooses, group cohesion can be negatively impacted (Suster 1996).
alinkas (2002) provides an illustrative case, involving "John" who had left a wife and two children back home, was profoundly depressed, and then became embroiled in a sexual relationship with a female crew member, which resulted in an elevation of his mood and increased productivity. Although, temporary sexual relationships between male and female crew members are common in the Antarctic (Palinkas 2000; Stuster 1996), "John's" sexual relationship met with group disapproval.
When a woman chooses to have a sexual relationship during her sojourn in the Antarctic, it is often with senior (rather than junior) personnel, including the station leader who is usually seen as having the most status by the women, as well as an unfair advantage by the other men, thereby creating considerable tension and conflict (Stuster 1996).
On the other hand, most studies report that including women as team members has a very positive effect on morale (Rosnet et al., 2004; Leon 2005), especially if they are married and accompanied by their spouse (Leon 2005; Leon et al., 2003). For example, in a study of three married couples from different countries icelocked on a boat in the High Arctic for a 9 month period, partners provided each other with significant emotional support. Married partners were also instrumental in alleviating interpersonal and group tensions, and contributed to the effective functioning of the team (Leon et al., 2003).
Women also tend to provide emotional support to other team members and try to help solve interpersonal problems, behaviors which are not common in all-male groups (Leon 2005; Leon et al., 2003; Palinkas 2002; Rosnet et al., 2004). Women also serve as "peacemakers" reducing non-sexual competition, tensions, and arguments among the men, and the men often turn to women to share their emotional and personal concerns--though these same men have little interest in listening to these women share their feelings.

6. SEX AND OUTER SPACE

Like other female mammals, the human female is most likely to actively seek sex when she is ovulating and most likely to get pregnant (e.g., Gold & Burt, 1978; Matteo & Rissman, 1984; Udry & Morris, 1968, 1970; Wolfe, 1991). Hence, women become pregnant in the hostile conditions of the Antarctic; and there is no reason to suspect they may not become pregnant on Mars.
According to the Bioastronautics Roadmap (Longnecker and Molins 2006), "the risk of pregnancy might be mitigated by crew selection" and the use of contraceptive medications. Unfortunately, the many "questions about the efficacy, safety, and side effects of contraceptive medications may require that studies to answer these questions be completed prior to crew selection or that other measures be used to mitigate the risk of pregnancy."
But would these pregnancies lead to the first babies born in space, or on Mars?
Reproductive medical issues that pertain to astronauts have generally received scant clinical scientific attention, and there is little information on 1) the effect of long duration spaceflight and gravity on normal menstrual functioning including menstrual efflux and retrograde (intra-abdominal) menstruation, 2), the impact of microgravity on normal hypothalamic and pituitary functioning which in turn impacts and influences gender-specific hormone production and ovarian function, and 3) the effect of space radiation on fertility, reproductive success, and the future childbearing capacity of both men and women.
Of concern is the effect of microgravity (in space) and reduced gravity (once on Mars), on testosterone and estrogen secretions, the menstrual cycle, ovulation, and sperm production and viability. For example, if ovulation ceases the female astronaut may be continuously exposed to high levels of estrogen. By contrast, if the hypothalamus is impacted testosterone and estrogen levels may significantly decrease or increase, all of which would effect sexual and reproductive success. One concern is that "the exercise necessary for long-term cardiovascular and musculoskeletal fitness may be so strenuous enough that it may cause hypothalamic-induced hypogonadism with reduced serum estrogen levels" (Harm et al., 2001).

6. MOTHERS AND BABIES IN SPACE

There is now considerable evidence that biologically meaningful interactions between mothers and offspring are changed in the weightlessness of space (Crawford-Young 2006; Ronca 2003). Studies of young rat litters launched at 9 days of postnatal age or earlier, have been characterized by compromised maternal–offspring interactions and behavioral abnormalities (Ronca 2003). Although alterations in gravity would have a profound impact on the maternal-infant relationship, the stress of space flight would also be a factor. Prolonged and chronic stress would effect the mother, fetus, infant and child and disturbances in the mother-infant relationship would have severe effects on the brain and mind of the child (Joseph 1982, 1998, 1999a,b, 2000a,c). In addition, prenatal stress is a direct cause of fetal mortality, abnormal brain functioning, abnormal nursing behavior, and increased postnatal mortality.
However, a major concern must be the effects of pregnancy on the crew of a craft journeying to Mars. It can be surmised that all aspects of the mission would be put in jeopardy. Crew mates would unlikely to be supportive as their ability to perform their duties or to live comfortably would be impacted. Stress levels would rise, as would irritability, resulting in considerable hostility and anger directed toward the mother and father unless, perhaps, she had sex with multiple astronauts and the identity of the father was unknown.

7. SEX ON MARS: THE FIRST MARTIANS

Humans have sex and pregnancies result. If a baby is born on Mars, what predictions can be made?
 From the moment of conception on Mars, the developing embryo-fetus-neonate-child, and its genome, will be subjected to a Martian environment markedly different from Earth, the most obvious distinctions being gravity, sunlight, radiation, temperature, and the biosphere. It is now well established that environmental influences early in life profoundly effects intelligence, learning, memory, vision, language, social-emotional functioning and the development, size, functioning, and interconnections of neurons and the brain (Casagrande & Joseph, 1978, 1980; Joseph 1979, 1982, 1998a,b, 2003; 1999a,b; Joseph, & Casagrande, 1978,1980; Joseph & Gallagher 1980); a function of the environment acting on gene activation vs suppression.
It has also been demonstrated "that populations contain a surprising amount of unexpressed genetic variation that is capable of affecting certain typically invariant traits" (Rutherford & Lindquist, 1998). There are thousands of "silent" genes within the human genome and the genome of other species, which code for or express functions which are as yet unknown (IHGSC 2001). However, fluctuations in temperature, oxygen levels, and diet can activate these "silent genes" (e.g., de Jong & Scharloo, 1976; Dykhuizen & Hart, 1980; Gibson & Hogness, 1996; Polaczyk et al., 1998; Rutherford 2003; Wade et al., 1997) which may express novel traits (Joseph 2009; Rutherford, 2003).
Environmental influences on gene expression are mediated through regulatory proteins such as Hsp90 (Feder and Hofmann 1999; Rutherford 2003; Sangster et al., 2004). Hsp90, for example, is a highly conserved multifunctional protein which targets multiple signal transducers and act as "molecular switches" which control gene expression in eukaryotes ranging from yeast to humans (Feder and Hofmann 1999; Rutherford 2003; Sangster et al., 2004). Hsp90 does not act alone but is part of a networks that includes other proteins such as Hsp70, and p23 (Pratt and Toft 2003). These proteins "normally suppress the expression of genetic variation affecting many developmental pathways" (Rutherford & Lindquist, 1998). These proteins prevent DNA expression by acting as a buffer between silent genes and the environment. However, changes in the environment can directly impact regulatory genes and change the configuration of these proteins thereby removing their buffering influences, such that silent genes are then activated which triggers the expression of silent characteristics (Joseph 2009). As demonstrated by Rutherford and Lindquist (1998, p. 341) Hsp90 acts as an "explicit molecular mechanism that assists the process of evolutionary change in response to the environment" and it accomplishes this through the "conditional release of stores of hidden morphological variation.... perhaps allowing for the rapid morphological radiations that are found in the fossil record."
As a variety of genes will be effected by the environment of Mars, then the genome and the development of a fetus conceived on Mars will be differentially effected as compared to the genome and the development of a fetus on Earth.
It must also be recognized that the testes, ovaries, and genome of the parents will have been subjected to markedly adverse environmental conditions as they traversed space to reach Mars (cf Crawford-Young 2006; Ma et al., 2008; Ronca 2003; Straume et al., 2010), and again once on Mars. It is also highly likely subsequent genetic alterations will be passed on to offspring born on Mars (cf NRC 1990, 2006b; Straume et al., 2010). As the environment acts on gene selection in parents and offspring, and as alterations in the environment and the genome effect evolutionary innovation and extinction (Joseph 1993, 2000b; 2009), then not just development but the evolution of humans on Mars will also be differentially effected as compared to humans of Earth.
Hence, if a child is conceived and born on Mars, we can predict at least three possible outcomes:
1) The child may suffer from mild to gross genetic, physical, and intellectual abnormalities (cf Serova et al., 1982, 1984; Ma et al., 2008; Otake et al., 1996; Reyners et al., 1992; Ronca 2003; Wong and DeSantis 1997).
2) The child will be completely healthy (cf Santy et al. 1982; Tao, et al., 2002).
3) Due to environmental influences on gene activation and differential and adaptive gene selection, although the child is completely healthy and normal it will be so different from children born on Earth, that it may appear abnormal simply because it is adapted, to varying degrees, to the Martian environment. The child will not be defective. Nor will it represent a new "race". Rather, it may represent a new species of humanity: The first Martian.
Naturally, all prospective parents will have to be counseled, before embarking to Mars, on these possible eventualities.

8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Women have been an integral part of United States space crews since 1983, and world wide over 50 women have been selected as astronauts thereby providing considerable data on menstruation control and hygiene, contraception, and urination. As summed up by Jennings and Baker (2000) "there are no operational gynecological or reproductive constraints for women that would preclude their successful participation in the exploration of our nearby solar system." Perhaps the age of the female astronaut is the only major limiting factor (women of child bearing age only), if the goal is the colonization of Mars.
Women and men are sexual beings. The likelihood is male and female astronauts, traveling in the same space craft, will have sex during the long duration space-flight to Mars and after they arrive on Mars, even if substantial rules and steps are taken to prevent it. Therefore, training and preparations must be taken to anticipate all possible consequences and to regulate, guide, and modulate sexual activity; not for the purpose of preventing sex, but to prevent catastrophe.
Consider, for example, the possibility that the commander of the space craft may monopolize the female astronauts who prefer to mate with him because of his higher status relative to those he commands. Estrus female chimps may copulate up to 50 times in a day but only with a few of the available males who generally tend to be of high status (Goodall, 1986; Tutin, 1975). In one colony of free ranging rhesus monkeys, consisting of 150 adult females and 52 males, most of the estrus females actively sought out and mated with the same three dominant males (Carpenter, 1942). In some colonies, only about 20% of the males were responsible for 80% of the matings (Freedman, 1979). In one study of 25 male and 25 female captive baboons, five of the males possessed all the females (Zuckerman, 1932). In the military, one case came to light where a major general was having sexual relations with the wives of four of his subordinates (Burns, 1999). In studies of humans in long duration Antarctic analogue (Mars-like) conditions, females also prefer high ranking senior personnel, including station chiefs, often to the exclusion of those with a junior status (Stuster 1996).
Female primates will also attack and fight among themselves for the opportunity to have sex with a high ranking male (Fedigan, 1992). In 2007, captain Lisa Nowak allegedly planned to kidnapped and murder captain Colleen Shipman, her rival for the affections of space shuttle commander Oefelein.
Naturally, if a few males monopolize the available females, the other male astronauts will respond negatively and this may lead to violence. This can be avoided by a rule which relieves the monopolizer of command in cases of sexual monopolization, thereby stripping any male of the high status which made female astronauts prefer him to the other male astronauts.
Astronaut Michael Collins (1990), advocates sending only married couples on these voyages to better be able to survive the hardships of space. "An element of stability, of old-shoe comfort, would be introduced by having one's husband or wife to fall back on." Studies of married couples in the Antarctic support this view. Married couples are a source of stability and married females have a very positive effect on morale not just on their spouse but on the emotional stability of the group (Rosnetet al., 2004; Leon 2005; Leon et al., 2003). Married partners have been reported to have a calming effect and help to reduce interpersonal and group tensions thereby contributing to the effective functioning of the team (Leon et al., 2003).
However, the reality is: divorces are common and relationships often come to an end, and if either or both the male and female astronaut decided to change partners during the course of a voyage to Mars there may be conflict. The changing of partners could be a frequent occurrence during the mission to Mars and once on the Mars surface. Naturally feelings of jealousy, betrayal, and emotional upset would be expected. Therefore, if married couples are to be selected for a mission to Mars, the focus should be on those with very strong emotional bonds.
If the long term goal is the colonization of Mars, then it must be recognized that many older female astronauts are no longer capable of becoming pregnant or having children (Jennings and Baker 2008). This may be due to age or factors associated with exposure to the conditions of space travel. Therefore it is important to send younger versus older female astronauts; i.e. women who are in their early child-bearing years.
Although male and female astronauts could be trained to "share and share alike" so that sexual favors are provided equally to one and all, perhaps a better solution might be to send two space craft, one with an all male crew and another with an all female crew. Not only does this solve the problems which may arise from male-female sexual couplings in space, but it would prevent any possibility of pregnancy.
Naturally, humans are going to have sex and women are going to get pregnant. Pregnancies during a mission to Mars must be avoided. Pregnancies may lead to the death or abnormal development of the fetus. Pregnancy coupled with muscle atrophy, bone mineral loss, radiation, and cardiovascular activity may put the mother's life and the entire mission to Mars at risk.
Therefore, if issues of human sexuality are not addressed, and if necessary precautions are not taken, sex in space could lead to pregnancies, conflict, violence, and catastrophe. By contrast, once safely on the Red Planet, sex on Mars and the subsequent birth of the first Martian, would truly make humans a two planet species, and would be the first step to human colonization of the cosmos.

COURTESY -
Rhawn Joseph, Ph.D.
Emeritus, Brain Research Laboratory, Northern California

Friday, 31 December 2010

2011- New Challenges and Hope

The discovery of the first Earth twin, the rise of robot avatars and major leaps forward for commercial space flight are just some of the developments that will define 2011 - or will they?
 Last year, we used this slot to preview the stories we were most looking forward to in 2010. Some happened: the first cells with synthetic genomes were created and there is now a rough draft of the Neanderthal genome. Others... not so much. Even the first of NASA's shuttles to be scheduled for retirement failed to make its final flight.
This year we decided to take prediction science a step further, by enlisting the powers of Samuel Arbesman, who works on computational approaches to the study of science at Harvard Medical School in Boston. He is pioneering ways to employ scientometrics - a field that attempts to measure scientific progress - to make predictions about when new discoveries will occur. In September, he famously used the properties of known alien worlds to predict that the first life-friendly exoplanet had a 50 per cent chance of being found before May 2011; such a planet showed up a few weeks later.
We asked Arbesman to apply similar methods to a list of breakthroughs we thought might happen in 2011. He whittled this down to four that lent themselves to his methods, and attempted to calculate the probability of each one occurring in the next 12 months.
In the articles below you can gauge these predictions for yourself, along with four more stories that we reckon have a good chance of defining 2011.

Earth's doppelganger

Like meeting an estranged twin you didn't know you had, Earthlings will thrill at finding their planetary double. To predict the timing of this momentous occasion, we turned to a measure of "Earth-like-ness" devised earlier this year by one of us (Arbesman), along with Greg Laughlin of the University of California, Santa Cruz. This "habitability index" is based on estimates of a planet's average temperature and size. "Hot Jupiters", searingly hot worlds that orbit their hosts in just days, score close to zero, while one with similar properties to Earth would get a value of 1.
In September, plotting the index of each planet against the date of its discovery and extrapolating the resulting curves predicted that an Earth-like planet would be found by May 2011. Two weeks later, such a planet - Gliese 581 g - was spotted although the detection is awaiting further confirmation.Exoplanet-hunting may get a boost in February, when NASA's Kepler telescope is set to release a flood of data. Even if Earth's twin doesn't emerge then, there are plenty of other exoplanet searches that could spot it too. Samuel Arbesman and Rachel Courtland

The internet Boom

The internet will be weaving its way around the world for decades, but will there be fewer new users in 2011 than there were in 2010? The internet is already considered so important in Finland, Spain and Estonia that access is a legal right. And the list of online possibilities keeps on growing. In 2010, the launch of Apple's iPad and other touchscreen computers made surfing more fun and intuitive, while several smartphone operating systems, especially Google's Android, took off, extending the mobile net's reach.

The Electric car

Gentlemen - and women - plug in your engines. This will be the year of the electric car. No, seriously. After seemingly endless testing, technical hiccups and plain reluctance on the part of manufacturers to move electric vehicles from the concept phase to the showroom, it's finally happening. A fleet of new cars powered by the plug instead of the pump will take to the road in 2011.
Leading the charge is the Chevy Volt. With a 16-kilowatt-hour battery and a 110-kilowatt (149-horsepower) electric motor, it can go 60 kilometres on a single charge, plenty for commuting and weekend grocery runs. Critics point out that a 1.4-litre gasoline engine kicks in when the battery runs down, making the Volt a mere hybrid rather than a fully fledged electric car.

A new Hope Stem Cell

Human embryonic stem cells have inspired hope and loathing in almost equal measure. Next year hESCs could prove their worth, thanks to trials of two very different treatments.HESCs are unique in their ability to form all 200 tissues of the human body. In principle, cells derived from them could regenerate almost any tissue or organ. But because they come from embryos that are later destroyed, their use is controversial. To pacify the opposition the stem cells need to live up to expectation.
Within weeks, surgeons will inject retinal cells derived from hESCs into the eye of an individual with Stargardt's macular dystrophy, in the hope of delaying or preventing blindness, says Robert Lanza of Advanced Cell Technology (ACT) in Worcester, Massachusetts, which is developing the treatment. Eleven more patients are due to be injected in 2011. Any improvements in vision should be obvious and could take as little as six weeks to emerge.
The eye, however, is something of a special case. Insulated from the immune system, cells there are less likely to be rejected than in other parts of the body. To find out whether hESCs have broader therapeutic potential, we need to look to another, more ambitious trial.In October, a paralysed person received a spinal injection of hESC-derived oligodendrocyte progenitor cells. Ten more patients are due to receive cells in 2011. The stem cells should repair damaged nerves and prompt the growth of new ones, says Geron of Menlo Park, California, which is developing this treatment.
Unlike the ACT trial, the benefits may take longer to show themselves. If the spinal cells do no more than show they are safe, this will be an important milestone. Also in the pipeline are therapies to restore sight in people with age-related macular degeneration and blood cells for use in transfusions.

Private Space Taxies

PRIVATE companies have been promising for years that they can slash the cost of space travel, breaking the government monopoly on space flight and opening up the final frontier to the rest of us. At long last these efforts may be bearing fruit.On 8 December, the California-based firm SpaceX launched its Dragon capsule into orbit and safely parachuted it into the ocean - the first time a private company has achieved the feat.
Under a contract signed with NASA in 2008, the Dragon capsule will carry cargo to the International Space Station. SpaceX founder Elon Musk hopes it will eventually be permitted to carry astronauts as well.
NASA, facing the retirement of the shuttle fleet in 2011, is actively encouraging the development of private space taxis. In 2010 alone it distributed $50 million to private space firms, including SpaceX, and Congress is considering spending hundreds of millions more in 2011.
So what do we have to look forward to in 2011? SpaceX plans two more demonstration flights, the first of which will likely blast off mid-year and is expected to fly within a few kilometres of the ISS. The second would actually dock with the station, marking another first for a non-governmental spacecraft.
Virgin Galactic, the space tourism company founded by airline mogul Richard Branson, is also set to take some giant leaps forward in 2011

Astronomy Events and Space Launches in 2011

2 January – Conjunction between Jupiter and Uranus at 13:41 UTC, with Jupiter 34 minutes of arc to the south; the third conjunction of a triple Conjunction.
4 January – Partial Solar Eclipse visible over most of Europe, the Arabian peninsula, North Africa, and Western Asia.
3 February - Space Shuttle Discovery mission STS-133 Launch, Lunch Time-1:37 am EDT
18 March – NASA's MESSENGER Spaceraft is scheduled to arrive in orbit around Mercury.
18 March – NASA's Pluto probe New Horions will cross the orbit of Uranus, after a five-year journey. This will be faster than Voyager-2, which took eight years.
01 April – Space shuttle Endeavour mission STS-134 Launch. Launch Time 3:15 am EDT . The Space Shuttle will undertake its final mission before retirement.
Pakistan will launch its first space satellite.
May - Jupiter, Venus, Mercury and Mars all visible within a roughly 6° area of sky.
1 June – Partial solar eclipse in the Arctic.
15 June – Total Lunar Eclipse, mainly visible in Africa, India, and the Middle East.
July - The Dawn Spaceraft is scheduled to arrive at the dwarf planet Vesta during July. The exact date remains uncertain.
1 July – Partial Solar Eclipse off the coast of Antarctica.
10 July – Neptune completes its first full orbit since its discovery in 1846
15 July – The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the second Dragon spacecraft, called Dragon C2. The mission will demonstrate proximity operations during an approach within 6 miles of the International Space Station.
05 August – First Mission to Jupiter NASA's Juno spacecraft will launch at 12:10 pm to 1:40 pm EDT. Juno will investigate the giant planet's formation, evolution and structure from an elliptical orbit. Mission Juno will reach Jupiter in 2016
15 August – The comet 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova will pass within 0.0601AU about 8,995,100 km of Earth
08 September – NASA's Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission will launch at 8:35 am - 9:14 am EDT. GRAIL includes two spacecraft in lunar orbit to study the moon's interior and thermal evolution.
08 October – The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the third Dragon spacecraft, called Dragon C3 to resupply missions to the International Space Station.
25 November – Partial Solar Eclipse in Antarctica.
25 November – NASA's Mars Science Laboratory mission will launch at 10:21 am from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida. Mars Science Laboratory mission is the Curiosity rover, which will assess whether Mars ever was, or is still today, an environment able to support microbial life and to determine the planet's habitability.
07 December – Dragon C4 will be the fourth rocket launched by SpaceX. This mission will be the first operational cargo delivery mission to the International Space Station
10 December – Total Lunar Eclipse, visible mainly in Asia, Australia and Alaska.
25 December - Russia's flagship planetary mission, Phobos-Grunt will launch. Phobos-Grunt Mission's key goal is landing on the surface of the Martian moon Phobos and returning its soil samples back to Earth.
- Predicted Solar Maximum also predicted by other research groups for 2012
- China’s permanent space station, will be launched anytime this year. The craft, an orbiting laboratory known in Mandarin as Tiangong-1, would initially serve as a docking station for other spacecraft.

Monday, 6 December 2010

A water world 40 Light Year away !

The extrasolar planet, or exoplanet, GJ 1214b was discovered last year orbiting a dim, red star about 40 light-years from Earth. The planet is about 2.7 times larger than Earth and about 6.5 times more massive.
Based on the planet's density, astronomers estimate that GJ 1214b would be about three-quarters water with a solid core and an atmosphere—not unlike Earth. But it seems the similarities stop there. The planet is so close to its star that any water would be turned to vapor, and the atmosphere should be so thick that the pressure would be immense.
Now new measurements show that GJ 1214b's atmosphere is made of either dense, ultrahot steam or a noxious, cloudy haze of hydrogen. "Either way, it would be unpleasant if you were there," said Greg Laughlin, an astronomer at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who was not involved in the study.

Starlight Carries Chemical Imprints
Astronomers were able to "sample" the planet's atmosphere by watching the world pass in front of its host star, as seen from Earth.Using the European Southern Observatory Very Large Telescope in Chile, the team captured the light filtered around the edges of the planet when the world was blocking the star."That light has imprinted on it the signature of chemicals in the atmosphere," said study leader Jacob Bean of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Similar measurements have revealed gases such as hydrogen and sodium in the atmospheres of so-called hot Jupiters, exoplanets that are more massive than our gas giants but that orbit very close to their host stars.This is the first time, however, that astronomers have been able to analyze the atmosphere of an Earth-size planet.

Planet Has "Noxious Soup" or Steamy Blanket?
The data show that GJ 1214b's atmosphere isn't, as previously theorized, a puffy, cloud-free layer of mainly hydrogen gas. Instead the atmosphere appears to block a significant amount of light, the team reports in this week's issue of the journal Nature. For such an atmosphere to be made mostly of hydrogen, it must be topped by a thick layer of clouds like the atmosphere of Venus.
If that's the scenario, "it would make the atmospheres around the worst oil refineries look absolutely pristine," UC Santa Cruz's Laughlin said. Light that does filter through the haze would trigger chemical reactions in the hydrogen gas, creating a "noxious soup of stuff" near the planet's surface.
However, based on the new data, it's also possible that GJ 1214b's atmosphere is a dense blanket of hot water vapor, aka steam. In that case, "it would be the most unique exoplanet we've found so far," study leader Bean said. "We have nothing like that in our solar system."

Saturday, 20 November 2010

10 Questions with Pr. Hawking

If God doesn't exist, why did the concept of his existence become almost universal?

I don't claim that God doesn't exist. God is the name people give to the reason we are here. But I think that reason is the laws of physics rather than someone with whom one can have a personal relationship.An impersonal God.
Does the universe end? If so, what is beyond it?

Observations indicate that the universe is expanding at an ever increasing rate. It will expand forever, getting emptier and darker. Although the universe doesn't have an end, it had a beginning in the Big Bang. One might ask what is before that, but the answer is that there is nowhere before the Big Bang, just as there is nowhere south of the South Pole.

Do you think our civilization will survive long enough to make the leap to deeper space?

I think we have a good chance of surviving long enough to colonize the solar system. However, there is nowhere else in the solar system as suitable as the Earth, so it is not clear if we would survive if the Earth was made unfit for habitation. To ensure our long-term survival, we need to reach the stars. That will take much longer. Let's hope we can last until then.

If you could talk to Albert Einstein, what would you say?

I would ask him why he didn't believe in black holes. The field equations of his theory of relativity imply that a large star or cloud of gas would collapse in on itself and form a black hole. Einstein was aware of this but somehow managed to convince himself that something like an explosion would always occur to throw off mass and prevent the formation of a black hole. What if there was no explosion?

Which scientific discovery or advance would you like to see in your lifetime?

I would like nuclear fusion to become a practical power source. It would provide an inexhaustible supply of energy, without pollution or global warming.

What do you believe happens to our consciousness after death?

I think the brain is essentially a computer and consciousness is like a computer program. It will cease to run when the computer is turned off. Theoretically, it could be re-created on a neural network, but that would be very difficult, as it would require all one's memories.

Given your reputation as a brilliant physicist, what ordinary interests do you have that might surprise people?

I enjoy all forms of music--pop, classical and opera. I also share an interest in Formula One racing with my son Tim.

Do you feel that your physical limitations have helped or hindered your study?

Although I was unfortunate enough to get motor neuron disease, I have been very fortunate in almost everything else. I was lucky to be working in theoretical physics, one of the few areas in which disability was not a serious handicap, and to hit the jackpot with my popular books.

Does it feel like a huge responsibility to have people expecting you to have all the answers to life's mysteries?

I certainly don't have the answers to all life's problems. While physics and mathematics may tell us how the universe began, they are not much use in predicting human behavior because there are far too many equations to solve. I'm no better than anyone else at understanding what makes people tick, particularly women.

Do you think there will ever come a time when mankind understands all there is to understand about physics?

I hope not. I would be out of a job.

Discovery of First Alien planet of outside our Milky Way

Astronomers have confirmed the first discovery of an alien planet in our Milky Way that came from another galaxy.The Jupiter-like planet orbits a star that was born in another galaxy and later captured by our own Milky Way sometime between 6 billion and 9 billion years ago, researchers said. A side effect of the galactic cannibalism brought a faraway planet within astronomers' reach for the first time ever.
"This is very exciting," said study co-author Rainer Klement of the Max-Planck-Institut fur Astronomie (MPIA) in Heidelberg, Germany. "We have no ability to directly observe stars in foreign galaxies for planets and confirm them." Stars currently residing in other galaxies are simply too far away, Klement added.
The find may also force astronomers to rethink their ideas about planet formation and survival, researchers said, since it's the first planet ever discovered to be circling a star that is both very old and extremely metal-poor. Metal-poor stars are lacking in elements heavier than hydrogen and helium.
The newfound planet, called HIP 13044b, survived through its star's red-giant phase, which our own sun will enter in about 5 billion years. So studying it could offer clues about the fate of our solar system as well, researchers said. HIP 13044b sits extremely close to its parent star, which has now contracted again. The planet completes an orbit every 16.2 days, and it comes within about 5 million miles (8 million kilometers) of its parent star at closest approach — just 5.5 percent of the distance between Earth and the sun.
Searching for telltale tugs
The newly discovered alien planet is at least 25 percent more massive than Jupiter, researchers said. It orbits the star HIP 13044 about 2,000 light-years from Earth in the constellation Fornax. HIP 13044 is about as massive as the sun, and it is nearing the end of its life. The star has already gone through its red giant phase — when sun-like stars bloat enormously after exhausting the hydrogen fuel in their cores.
The star is also composed almost entirely of hydrogen and helium. It is less than 1 percent as metal-rich as our sun, making it the most metal-poor star known to host a planet, researchers said.
The research team scrutinized HIP 13044's movement using a telescope at the European Southern Observatory's La Silla Observatory in Chile. After six months of observing, they detected tiny movements that betrayed the gravitational tug of an orbiting planet. "For me, it was a big surprise," said study lead author Johny Setiawan, also of MPIA. "I was not expecting it in the beginning." Setiawan, Klement and their colleagues report their results online in the Nov. 18 issue of Science.

An extragalactic origin

Last year, another research team announced it may have detected a planet in the Andromeda galaxy. However, that faraway find will be nearly impossible to confirm. The astronomers performing that previous study used a method called gravitational microlensing, which only works when a planet-hosting star happens to line up with another star. Such events happen very rarely.
HIP 13044, on the other hand, belongs to the Helmi stream of stars that were once part of a nearby dwarf galaxy. Astronomers believe our own Milky Way gobbled up the Helmi stream between 6 billion to 9 billion years ago.While it's technically possible that the planet was born in the Milky Way and then stripped from its parent star by the interloping HIP 13044, the odds of that happening are minuscule, researchers said.
So HIP 13044 almost certainly has an extragalactic origin.
"We can be pretty sure about that," Klement told. "Stellar encounters in the Milky Way essentially don't occur. The chance that the star captured the planet from another star by an encounter is very, very unlikely."

Rethinking theories of planet formation

Most of the nearly 500 alien planets discovered so far orbit metal-rich stars, researchers said. And a metal-rich star is fundamental to the dominant theory explaining how giant planets form — the core-accretion model. This model posits that dust and gas particles circling a young star cling together and gradually become larger, forming rocks, boulders and eventually the stony cores of giant, gassy planets like HIP 13044b.
Because its parent star is so metal-poor, HIP 13044b may have formed in a different way, researchers said. The planet may have arisen via the gravitational attraction between gas molecules, through a process termed the disk-instability model. So it may not have a rocky core at all.
"You are able to form pure gas planets by this method," Klement said. The fact that such a metal-poor star can host planets should inspire astronomers to look at other stars like it, Klement added. Astronomers haven't examined many up to this point, so they don't have a good handle on how frequently planets might pop up around low-metal stars.
The discovery also hints that planets may have studded the cosmos from the universe's early days — back when pretty much all stars were metal-poor. "You can think of the very first stars in the universe, or the second or third generation of stars," Klement said. "Could they already have been able to form planets? That's a very fascinating question."

Vision of our solar system's fate?

Our own sun is on the same stellar-evolution track as HIP 13044; scientists predict it will blot into a red giant in 5 billion years or so. So astronomers may be able to learn something about the fate of our solar system by studying HIP 10344b and its parent star, researchers said.
That fate would not be pretty for Earth. HIP 13044b likely once orbited much farther away from its star but spiraled closer and closer during the red giant phase due to friction with the swollen star's envelope, researchers said. Any more interior planets would have been destroyed during this process.
When our own sun enters its red giant phase, Earth will likely get cooked.
"The inner planets, including Earth, maybe will not survive," Setiawan told . "But Jupiter, Saturn and the outer planets might move to closer-in orbits, exactly like we detected."
HIP 13044b is a survivor, but it won't live forever. Its parent star is due to expand again in the next phase of its stellar evolution, researchers said, and this time the planet will almost certainly be engulfed.

Milky Way may have inflated two huge bubbles of gamma rays

An ancient eruption of a supermassive black hole in the Milky Way may have inflated two huge bubbles of gamma rays which were just now discovered and are considered a new type of astronomical object.
"It shows, once again, that the universe is full of surprises," said Jon Morse, director of astrophysics at NASA headquarters. Combined, the bubbles, which are aligned at the center of the Milky Way, span a vast distance of about 50,000 light-years. The structures are very distinct, with defined edges, and have as much energy in them as 100,000 supernova.
They were found with NASA's Fermi Gamma-Ray Telescope, which surveys the sky every three hours for the highest-energy light.Among the 1,500 sources of gamma rays Fermi has mapped so far, nothing resembles the bubble-shaped structures, which stretch across more than half of the visible sky, from the constellation Virgo to the constellation Grus.
"You have to ask where could energy like that come from," said astronomer Doug Finkbeiner, with the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.Hints of the bubbles appeared years earlier in X-ray surveys and in maps of the cosmic microwave background radiation stemming from the Big Bang explosion.
"We had a hypothesis before Fermi launched that there should be some gamma ray emission in this part of the sky. We were thinking something a bit more modest, maybe something within 10 or 20 or 30 degrees of the center, not these giant structures reaching all the way up to 50 degrees," Finkbeiner said.
Scientists have two possible explanations for the Fermi bubbles. Theory one: a burst of star-formation at the center of the galaxy generated short-lived massive stars with energetic winds that blasted high-energy particles out into space.
Finkbeiner points out that it would take some time to accumulate as much energy as what's inside the bubbles, however. He favors an alternative theory: an outburst from the supermassive black hole lurking in the center of the galaxy. In other galaxies, astronomers have seen evidence for jets of particles triggered by matter that is being pulled into a black hole, objects that have so much gravitational pull that not even light can escape their grasp.
There's no evidence that the Milky Way's central black hole, which is about 400 million times more massive than our sun, has jets, but astronomers suspect it might have in the past."We know it didn't get to be that big by sitting there quietly all the time. It certainly has had big accretion events in the past, where material falls on it and then some of that material comes back out as high-energy particles blasted out in the form of a jet," Finkbeiner said.
"We've never really seen very good evidence of it. This might be the first evidence for a major outburst of the black hole at the center of the galaxy. When it's going full-blast … it would not actually take an enormous amount of time -- maybe 10,000 or 100,000 years -- for it to produce enough energy to create these structures," Finkbeiner said.
"This result is very exciting," added Fermi scientist Simona Murgia, with the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory in Menlo Park, Calif. "These features could reveal unexpected and very important physical processes in our galaxy that until now we knew nothing about despite the fact that these features could possibly be almost as large as the Milky Way and might have been around for millions of years."

Tuesday, 9 November 2010

LHC creates mini big bangs

The world's largest particle smasher - the Large Hadron Collider at CERN, near Geneva in Switzerland - has seen the highest temperatures ever produced by a science experiment, thanks to a flurry of "mini big bangs".
On 7 November, the LHC started smashing lead ions head-on, instead of the usual proton-proton collisions. This produced what are referred to as mini big bangs: dense fireballs that have temperatures of about 10 trillion °C.
At such temperatures and energies, the nuclei of atoms melt into a mix of their constituent quarks and gluons. The fireball is known as a quark-gluon plasma. The formation of the plasma is a key prediction of the extremely successful theory of quantum chromodynamics (QCD), which tells us that as we go back to earlier and earlier times in the universe's history, the strength of strong interactions falls almost to zero. The discovery of this so-called "asymptotic freedom" is what resulted in a Nobel Prize for David Politzer, Frank Wilczek and David Gross in 2004.
The quark-gluon plasma has been studied in great detail at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) at Upton, New York, which smashes gold ions head-on. In February 2010, RHIC researchers reported the creation of plasma that had temperatures of 4 trillion °C.
Now, thanks to a 287 TeV beam, the LHC's lead ions are colliding with energies about 13.5 times greater than what has been achieved at RHIC.The resultant plasma fireballs will allow physicists at CERN using the 10,000-tonne ALICE (A Large Heavy Ion Experiment) detector to study the universe as it was about a millionth of a second after the big bang.
One can only wonder about what surprises are in store. At RHIC, the biggest surprise was that the quark-gluon plasma, instead of being a gas, acts like a perfect liquid.